Altador Cup VIII Preseason Predictions [VIDEO]

So yeah this is me (no I’m not a girl), I do ramble a lot and I tend to use language that some might deem inappropriate at times.

I did have to leave out the last part due to time constraints, so if you have any questions you would like me to answer in a future video, please send them to me in a p.m.

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ACVIII Overall Predictions

Long time no see, guys! Christmas break has finally rolled around and my work load has lessened, so now I’ll *finally* deliver my predictions for next year, as promised ages ago. We have no idea what the format will be next year, which makes things a bit more difficult to figure out… Here goes nothing!

 Without further ado, here’s the list.

1. Lost Desert

2. Darigan Citadel

3. Maraqua

4. Meridell

5. Krawk Island

6. Mystery Island

7. Virtupets

8. Roo Island

9. Kreludor

10. Haunted Woods

11. Kiko Lake

12. Tyrannia

13. Brightvale

14. Terror Mountain

15. Shenkuu

16. Moltara

17. Faerieland

18. Altador

 

And now, to explain.

1. I’ve predicted that the team taking home the cup will be LD–which is to say, I’m predicting the first repeat champions in AC history. Why? Well, consistency. LD has done fantastically well in every AC to date, excluding their post-win year. They made a glorious comeback to fifth last year, playing stably and with significant strength, even against powerhouses. Nearly every team in the cup was in turmoil, but LD held themselves together cleanly even though they were a mere two years past their last victory. I’m predicting that after last year’s rise, they’ll get just the right kind of hype among die-hard ACers and close the gap even further to win it all again.

2. Right behind LD, I have DC. DC also has a great shot at the cup next year, with consistency similar to LD’s a few places lower. DC is massive, historically strong, and unlike many teams, DC maintained this strength despite the new format which so easily discouraged playing. DC’s hung around the top for several years now, and I think it’s time that they make waves again.

3. Next is Maraqua. MQ had a tough year last year, and to be honest, I would put much of it on the cup format and morale.  MQ is a team that relies heavily on organization. Last year’s format made organization completely useless. This placement is a wildcard–I believe that MQ is stronger than the performance they gave last year, and should next year’s format make a little more sense to classic AC players, I think MQ will benefit.

4. Meridell is the favorite of many for the win next year. KD won, and thus should be out of the way.  MI is too unstable to expect to hold their spot in the eyes of many. This leaves MD next, a team that’s often strong. So, why not MD in first? MD is just too volatile. I don’t meant just in long term, year-by-year standards. I mean within each individual cup too. MD started slowly last year and was not as strongly consistent as a team I would expect to be a victor. Looking at past victors (KD, LD, KI, even RI), we can see that teams that win often dominate not only in their win year, but in the year or several years previously.  There is an exception in VP, but exceptions do not make the rule. VP was a very small team, and small teams tend to be able to change position much more rapidly than large ones (see: KL), enabling them to shoot up and swipe the cup away from the usual suspects. I don’t feel that MD will be able to defeat powers at the top quite yet, even though they’ve got the strength to compete.

5. Next, Krawk Island. KI is often predicted similarly to DC. After all, they’re both enormous teams with a lot of power. However, last year seemed to separate them. KI is a bit stronger than they placed I feel, but unlike DC, they didn’t cope well with the change in format. Looking purely at results, they just seemed to disappear for a while last cup. This is why I won’t place them where they more typically are found. I haven’t heard any whispers of change on the KI front, so I placed them just a couple spots higher (where their strength might be closer to if they can keep morale up).

6. Mystery Island did incredibly well last year, but I’m dropping them all the way to sixth.  I do this because MI is a small team, which means they can often flit around standings unlike larger, more stable teams. MI cleaned up their act last year and kicked it into gear, making an unbelievable run out of nowhere for the cup. This wasn’t exactly unprecedented, however. Several teams have made incredible improvements for one year just to fall the next (TY, RI).  It just doesn’t seem likely to me that a team more used to the lower ranks will be able to maintain on top, where small teams don’t usually survive. On top of that, the freeloaders MI has a good chance of taking on will pull them down. I’m sure many will predict MI even lower, but we’ve all been wrong about them before. Their incredible play last year convinces me not to drop them too far.

7. Virtupets fell quite a bit last year, but a good bit of that might be due to the “Winner’s Curse.” It might also be due to small team volatility, but VP made sixth the year before they won, meaning that they were on the rise just beforehand. For this reason, I’m placing VP seventh. This year is VP’s to make a comeback, like several (but not all) past champs did. I don’t see them coming back as well as LD and RI did (though RI’s was temporary) because of their lack of consistency and size, but I do see them coming back.

8. Next I have RI. RI fell pretty hard last year, but again, last year was not kind to many teams that did well under the DRR. Towards the end of the cup, RI showed promising strength, which might indicate good things for them next year. This is my shot in the dark for the year.

9. I’ve placed the reigning champions in ninth. Past champs have placed anywhere from 7th-13th on their post-win years, so 9th seems like a safe bet–but honestly, it might be a bit optimistic. In the last couple of years, the standard has been 13th. It seems that as the cup goes on, the reigning champs fall harder and harder. Every year–and I do mean every year–people look at the winners and, thinking about how well they’ve done and how solid they seem as a team, they claim that it won’t happen to them. They claim that KD’s too close-knit to have deserters. They claim that freeloaders aren’t hopping onto the first place team as much anymore. They claim that KD’s been so consistent that they’ll beat the bad mojo that afflicts champs. Well, the hard truth is that every single past champion has had the same said about them, and every single one has fallen far from their former glory. If all of these factors weren’t enough to drop KD, the fact that so many people are optimistic about their chances will ensure their fall even further.  More hope, more freeloaders.  KD’s four-year run at the top is over, at least for now.

10. In tenth, I placed HW. This is a slight drop from last year, but not nearly so much as many will probably put them. Considering where they ended up… Well, HW just didn’t seem to actually win much last year. Many say that that means they don’t deserve where they ended up, but truthfully, I think they did deserve it. Teams were placed according to overall effort, not actually winning any individual games. It’s entirely possible that HW deserved exactly what they got. I predict a slight drop simply because of relativity to other teams, not necessarily anything HW will do. HW often shows promise, but I’m not ready to make any bets on them quite yet :p

11. Next I have KL. I predict a sizable drop for KL, and, frankly, it’s for all the same reasons I predict MI dropping. The freeloaders will be to a far lesser extent, but then again, KL is also a far smaller team. Even before their remarkable jump they were infamous for their unpredictability. Towards the end of the cup, they flagged. I just don’t have good feelings about them.

12. Tyrannia follows KL, dropping slightly from the 10th place position they took last year. TY, despite having immense overall strength in the past, seemed to underperform. I don’t really see any signs that they’ll jump up or drop because of their fairly reliable strength.

13. BV takes a slight drop, but really, 13th is right in the neighborhood of where we often find them. BV hasn’t shown many signs of improvement or failings, so I just don’t know what to do with them aside from predicting stagnancy (which, I suppose, they have been since they came back into the cup).

14. TM tied for eleventh, and I predict a drop for them simply because there isn’t enough room in these cursed standings for where I want to put them. They didn’t make an impression on me last year, and since they’re starting a downward trend, I decided predicting a minor drop isn’t terribly unreasonable.

15. I see a slight rise for SK, simply because I think they’re stronger than they played last year. They didn’t honestly even play as bad as their rank turned out, but from the way the cup was formatted, they landed 16th. SK’s much more stable than they were in the past, so here’s hoping to a slow growth in power.

16. – 18. Moltara made an improvement last year, but it was only enough to pull ahead of the bottom of the pack. They did make a bit of a fuss, but I don’t want to read too much into it. I’m still a little wounded that FL dropped right back down when they made a similar improvement ACVI. Because I think SK is better than they played, I think MT will be forced back to 16th. FL and AL have been stuck at the bottom for so long that I don’t see them choosing this year to recover. I put FL above AL because FL has often done marginally better in the past.

 

This is where I stand for ACVIII predictions. I will probably adapt them once the cup draws nearer, once players begin to return and shift among teams. If the new format is revealed early enough for me to rethink these before the cup starts, I most certainly will.  They also probably need proofreading. =P

My predictions were awfully long-winded, but you’ve got several months to read them, so hopefully you guys don’t mind. As always, thanks for reading!