Day 21: And the Cup Goes To…

Commentary

In Alabriss, MD, MI, and KI all managed to sweep their opponents with no errors and no hope for underdogs.

In Minitheus, it was a different story. While KD managed to sweep AL, MT most certainly did not fair so well versus TY. TY took two games and drew the third, giving them a win game-wise but ultimately a loss point-wise (MT’s just that good at MSN). HW, however, nearly swept VP, with VP only managing to draw YYB. With that, folks, we can probably just declare the cup complete and hand it over to HW.

In the final bracket, BV did the opposite of what they probably should’ve, like we might’ve known. They took BV while MQ side-swept. RI does just barely better than I thought, taking SS rather than drawing it, but the scores in the game were really quite higher than expected. SK surprisingly sideswept KL, doing even better than I thought, and it certainly looks like KL’s on a down swing.

Predictions

KI vs LD
LD/KI/KI/KI
They’re closeish and I don’t think KI will sweep, so I gave LD their closest game, YYB.

MI vs TM
MI/MI/MI/MI
MI should have it easy.

MD vs FL
MD/MD/MD/MD
MD *should* sweep. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some small upsets.

KD vs MT
KD/MT/MT/MT
Depending on the day each team has, YYB is up in the air. I think KD will focus today.

VP vs AL
VP/VP/VP/VP

HW vs TY
HW/HW/HW/HW
HW’s a lot more even than MT… I don’t think TY has much of a shot.

MQ vs RI
RI/RI/RI/RI
RI’s scores were great yesterday. I think they’ll certainly win, if not sweep.

DC vs SK
DC/DC/DC/SK
DC should kill it, but I don’t know, a lot of people don’t take SK seriously enough. For this, I give SK SOSD.

KL vs BV
KL/KL/KL/KL
If BV goes for YYB again, KL will probably sweep.

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Day 20: Zombie Deathmatch… In Space

Commentary

Completely unexpectedly, LD takes YYB while MD side sweeps, throwing me for a real loop.  MI sweeps as I thought, but their point margin is pretty intense, at 10 points. FL doesn’t let TM walk all over them, drawing SS and surprisingly YYB.

TY exceeds all expectation and does better than KD on KD’s best days, taking a well-earned sweep. VP pulls out their big guns and surprises us all by outmatching MT in 2/4 games, and drawing another, for a 4-point lead. HW creamed AL as expected.

The RI/BV match was random as expected, but RI turned out some pretty darn good scores, a pleasant surprise. MQ/SK went as expected, and DC narrowly beat KL, the match going as expected aside from YYB drawing rather than going to KL.

Predictions

TM vs MD
D/MD/MD/MD
MD is a stronger team overall, but they just aren’t so far above TM as to guarantee a sweep.

KI vs FL
KI/KI/KI/KI
KI has just enough edge for me to call the sweep, but I think FL is full of potential to upset.

MI vs LD
MI/MI/MI/MI
MI is unbelievable these days. YYB could draw, but I’m gonna roll with MI’s successes.

TY vs MT
TY/MT/MT/TY
With the scores TY put up yesterday, they could ACTUALLY beat MT. They should certainly take YYB, and have potential in both SS AND MSN.

HW vs VP
HW/HW/HW/VP
HW’s scores haven’t always been capable of near-sweeping VP, but frankly, they haven’t been challenged to this level yet, and I think we’ll really see what they can do today.

KL vs SK
KL/SK/KL/KL
KL should win, but I don’t think they’ll really put in the time to sweep.

DC vs RI
DC/D/DC/DC
DC should win it, but… RI’s impressing me lately. YYB and SS should be watched.

BV vs MQ
MQ/BV/MQ/BV
I’m not sure I should bother trying to put reasoning behind a prediction for a BV match. Seriously, they’ll do what they want.

Day 19: Fewer Sweeps In Our Future

Brackets ended up as some predicted… with the 5 best teams in the cup in one bracket along with AL, who might come out of this bracket a changed team. I’m happy on one hand, because it groups up the top three and gives some other teams a chance, but I’m unhappy on the other hand, because TY and KD both actually had a shot at doing well this year.

Predictions

MD vs LD
MD/LD/LD/MD
MD should take the win, but LD is going to make a strong showing anyway.

KI vs MI
MI/MI/MI/MI
MI’s been killing it lately. If they keep it up, KI’ll be a breeze.

TM vs FL
TM/TM/TM/TM
TM’s a touch stronger overall, and that might make the difference today. They’re highly inconsistent though, surprises are pretty much to be expected.

MT vs VP
VP/MT/MT/MT
This long-awaited match is a bit of a flop. MT’s strength is just not YYB; it’s pretty well dispersed over the sides instead. Ergo…

KD vs TY
KD/D/TY/KD
The only thing I’m sure about is that TY will take MSN. Otherwise, both teams can be incredibly strong, and on their best days, would draw each other.

HW vs AL
HW/HW/HW/HW

RI vs BV
BV/RI/D/BV
BV is all over the place, frankly. Anything could happen. Seriously.

SK vs MQ
MQ/SK/SK/SK
SK’s been consistently stronger as of late.

DC vs KL
KL/DC/DC/KL
I’m pretty sure about MSN/SOSD, but YYB and SS could go either way. KL’s a great about focusing when inspired and, well, DC has that effect on people… so I’m seeing a KL win today.

Day 18: Bye-Bye-Bye

Yesterday brought the third bracket of ACIX to a close with some very interesting results.

In Alabriss, HW swept RI (as expected) and TY’s scores shot up against MD (again!!), earning them an  impressive sweep. MQ’s MSN score drops to a 1 while FL’s SS score rises to a 4, allowing them to take two games from MQ and making the match an overall draw, while MQ becomes the team #15 in points and #8 in TNT’s ranking.

KL continues their slump, losing two games to LD and displaying a 2 in MSN. KI and AL’s match turns out as expected, with AL nabbing SS and BV TAKES SS FROM VP!! They pull out an 8 in SS, nabbing it from VP while their scores are only awesome, not unbelievable.

In Vaeolus, MT sweeps (close but no cigar in YYB for MI),  while the SK/TM match comes out an overall draw, decided by the two of them drawing games out of a hat to decide who won what. Finally, the most bittersweet match of the day for me, KD beats DC by a six-point margin, including a win in YYB, and remains behind them in the bracket, furthering my WTF feeling of irritation with this bracket system as there is literally no reason I can come up with for KD being behind DC.

If word on the street is correct, one bracket next round will contain VP, MT, HW, TY, KD and AL. If that’s the case, we (KD) don’t need any help losing points. It’s my first time being on the side of a team short-changed by the bracket system, and friends, I never really appreciated how much it sucks before.

Day 17: Dark Tiki Curse

Commentary

In Alabriss, things went mostly as expected. HW swept FL, TY nearly swept RI, and MD swept MQ

In Minitheus, AL failed to show up KL in SS, their score dropping down to a 3. They must’ve tuckered themselves out. LD takes one game from BV, as was expected, and of course, VP swept KI.

Finally, In Vaeolus, sweeps were abundant, and 2/3 were expected (KD over SK, MT over TM). MI sweeping DC, however, wasn’t something I think we expected. Just days ago they were nearly swept by KD (with normal scores!) and now their scores are off the charts-this was no failure on DC’s part. For whatever reason, MI is just determined to beat the living daylights out of DC aren’t we all.


 

Predictions

HW vs RI
HW/HW/HW/HW
The killers of dreams strike again.

MD vs TY
MD/D/TY/TY
I get the feeling TY won’t pull those same high scores against MD that they did last time. Of course, I’m often entirely wrong, but sometimes winning once can lower your effort next time.

FL vs MQ
MQ/MQ/MQ/MQ
Even though MQ’s not doing well, they’re LIKELY to sweep. Each game is maybe by a one point margin, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if FL upset.

KI vs AL
KI/AL/KI/KI
KI’s SS scores haven’t been great and AL doesn’t have to pull 5s to beat them in it.

LD vs KL
KL/KL/KL/KL
KL *should* sweep, yeah, but their scores have been dipping and it wouldn’t be much of a stretch for LD to sneak in.

VP vs BV
VP/VP/VP/VP
BV has been doing well, but not VP-level well.

KD vs DC
KD/D/DC/KD
It’ll be a close one, no doubt about it. I think KD will win YYB and DC will win MSN, but the other two? who knows. I am incredibly anxious for these results

MT vs MI
D/MT/MT/MT
I think MI will get the draw in YYB, but otherwise, nobody can stand up to MT.

TM vs SK
TM/SK/TM/D
Scores are often close between these two, but TM seems to be jumpier than SK and they have more of a potential to surprise.

Day 16: Miracles can happen after all

Commentary

RI throws their weight around and nearly sweeps MQ, showing that they’re not just a one-trick pony. The “unstoppable” KL? ROLLED by BV (the team that just drew Altador) by a six point margin. WOW. I didn’t think surprises of this caliber could still occur, but both teams can be pretty random. AL takes SS from KI and it looks like they’re up to their (very) old tricks. KD fails to stand up to MT, losing with a sweep and lower scores than they’ve had recently. MI solidly defeats the Citadel, something I think we’re all a little shocked to see. They certainly caused the trouble I suspected, but in greater force than expected.  TM takes the “close” match against SK by storm, though oddly, their SS drops from 6 to 2 in one day and becomes the only game SK won. Phaw.

Predictions

HW vs FL
HW/HW/HW/HW

RI vs TY
TY/TY/TY/RI
RI has been doing well lately but TY has just been doing better.

MQ vs MD
MD/MD/MD/MD
MD *could* sweep here. MQ is pretty down.

KI vs VP
VP/VP/VP/VP
KI hasn’t been performing up to snuff lately, and I don’t think they can take on VP.

LD vs BV
BV/BV/LD/BV
BV is a team that goes from a 1 to a 5 in MSN in one day. From drawing AL to beating the crap out of KL. Frankly, anything could happen.

KL vs AL
KL/D/KL/KL
I’ve been bitten in the butt for underestimating both of these teams so far, so I’m just going to back up a couple days and predict how I would’ve when things were right with the world.

KD vs SK
KD/D/KD/KD
KD’s scores really dropped yesterday,  but even so, they’d be at a level with/above SK. I think part of the drop had to do with MT, so I’ll stick with the rise KD showed before that match and hope I’m right.

DC vs MI
D/MI/DC/DC
This might be a fool-me-twice-shame-on-me situation, but I think DC will display a little more fight this time. If MI throws the same sort of scores up they showed yesterday, though, there’s not much they can do.

TM vs MT
MT/MT/MT/MT

Day 15: I Just Want It To Make Sense!

Commentary

Some noteworthy events of today’s results: RI and MD’s games turn out like I guessed, but RI’s point margin in their wins was so wide they beat MD by three points, something I didn’t expect. KL flexed and threw KI aside like a wet paper towel.  AL and BV TIED their match. TIED IT.  AL pulled a 5 in SS, and BV a 1 in MSN. TM took SS from DC with a random score leap. KD’s scores stay high, but MI’s scores are just.. great lately, so they’re right behind and manage a draw in SS.

And now, disclaimer: I know there’s inequality in many places, but I watch and remember KD’s scores more than any other team’s, so I just NOTICE it there more easily. And I’m not blaming other teams, you can’t help where you’re placed, you just play and what happens happens.

Now, my thoughts.

As of now, KD sits behind DC in their bracket, and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why. For the round so far, KD’s been ahead in both overall score and YYB score. They’ve had better daily results. For the entire cup so far, KD ‘s overall score is still higher, their bonus game wins compete with  if not defeat DC’s (I can’t remember them all, I’m sorry D: ). Their overall YYB score for the whole cup also (just barely) beats DC’s. WHAT IS TNT BASING THIS ON?? I’m just frustrated. I would rather be doing worse as a team and earn our place behind DC than have all of this confusion. YYB isn’t the most important game? Great! Daily results don’t matter? Okay.. that’s fine. I like the idea of being able to play whatever you want and still help your team, no matter what.  Cool. But… score doesn’t matter either? Neither overall nor per round? How does TNT expect anyone to be able to handle the confusion of the bracket system and keep faith in the cup? -______- I can make peace with ASGs and ACGs. I just want things to make sense.

Predictions

HW vs FL
HW/HW/HW/HW

MD vs TY
MD/TY/TY/TY
TY would beat MD in sides on most days. YYB is close, but since I don’t think MD will be swept, I’ll have to give it to them.

MQ vs RI
D/RI/RI/MQ
RI should come out ahead in SS/MSN, but both YYB and SOSD are close. I’m not sure how good the odds are that they’ll come out so far ahead of MQ again.

BV vs KL
KL/KL/KL/KL
KL’s just unstoppable right now.

LD vs VP
VP/VP/VP/VP

KI vs AL
KI/KI/KI/KI
KI’s been fading while AL’s shining brighter than ever, but I just can’t believe it can last.

TM vs SK
D/TM/TM/SK
YYB and MSN are too close to call, but I gave TM the win because I *think* their SS win margin should take the match.

KD vs MT
KD/MT/MT/MT
YYB could easily draw, but since KD’s on a YYB upswing, I gave it to them. If MT’s SOSD is like yesterday’s, they might just let that slip too. Either way, the score margin in SS/MSN should guarantee the overall to MT.

MI vs DC
D/MI/DC/DC
MI has been doing unusually well and they could really cause DC some trouble. I might even venture to say the match is in danger.