Day 1 Predictions ermahgerd

Introduction

Yaz here! I’m going to be writing my predictions a little differently today. Because it’s day one and whoever’s higher in the bracket is probably going to win, my predictions for each match would probably start to sound pretty repetitive after the second one. This is compounded by the fact that due to the extremely lowered maxes, I have a feeling every team is about to get a whole lot more well-rounded. So, I’ll go through each bracket  in a short article up here, followed up with my predictions without extra explanations! I haven’t gotten to watch the standings swap, so my analysis will be a little shallow, unfortunately. ):

Alabriss Bracket

At first glance, this bracket looks brutal.  KD, KI, and RI are all teams that might be contenders this year, while LD and MQ are dark horses that could return to their former glory at any time. However, the current standings tell a different story. RI sitting in dead last this late in the day bodes ill for them, particularly since they and LD sit below MT, an annual bottom-of-the-pack team. Even if MT has risen, as it seems clear that they have, they haven’t been strong enough to go far, so I feel as though it’s a natural shift in team dynamics, not something that’ll boost them so high that the RI we knew would fall below them.  KD and KI have swapped a bit throughout the day, showing that KD isn’t completely dominating the bracket though they’ve held the lead for most of the day. As for MQ? They’re possibly doing a little better than expected, best aside from powerhouses (?) but we don’t know how well MT/LD/RI are doing, exactly, so it’s just low value speculation. LD and MT are curiosities for me, I won’t really know where they sit until we get a bracket swap.

Minitheus Bracket

I was completely mind-blown to see FL leading this bracket and DC dead last when I left for work this morning; however, the entire bracket has flipped since then. VP, rumored receiver of at least three ASGs, leads. Their chances this year seem strong, but they aren’t infallible, considering they started the day much lower. MD and DC might also be strong, but I’m still surprised to see DC anywhere but second or first. I seem to have overestimated them this year. Shenkuu sits above the curiously unpredictable FL, and AL brings up last, one of the few thankfully predictable possible outcomes today. If they were ahead of DC at one point, though, maybe they won’t be the pushovers I thought. I’m just… not sure what to even think about this bracket. FL was first… FL was first… FL was first…

Vaeolus Bracket

KL leads, which by sheer, dumb luck, I predicted. Since this bracket doesn’t have any traditional powerhouses otherwise, I can’t even tell what that means.  Possibly nothing, since the screenshot I managed this morning started them in fifth, but then, only about 5 teams seem to have maintained their earlier position. HW made their way up to second throughout the day, and BV’s come in a respectable third. My thoughts so far are that I might have overestimated MI, and as I had already suspected upon hearing some groups might’ve joined them, underestimated HW. BV’s not doing quite as well as I’d hoped, but they sure aren’t doing bad considering their usual placement.

Predictions

The bolded team is the winner. The games go in the order: YYB / SS / MSN / SOSD

MD vs DC

MD/MD/DC/DC

LD vs MT

LD/MT/MT/MT

KI vs MQ

KI/KI/KI/MQ

KD vs RI

KD/KD/KD/KD

VP vs SK

VP/VP/VP/VP

FL vs AL

AL/FL/FL/FL

HW vs KL

KL/KL/HW/HW

MI vs TY

MI/TY/TY/TY

BV vs TM

BV/BV/BV/BV

 

The New Bracket System

Hello my avid readers, Joe here. Today I had two articles pre-written about how I felt the Altador Cup would be going so far, from how the brackets would be made up if TNT kept the first round to how they did it last year, to who would be dominating and already be podium contenders. And right out the gate both articles were invalidated because TNT changes things up. The brackets don’t seem to follow any real pattern, just that they were randomly created but at the same time seeming evenly balanced. And all the teams that are getting help from All-Stars Groups and Auto Score Sending groups (Haunted Woods, Darigan Citadel, and Virtupets) are at the bottom of their brackets, or hovering in the middle in the case of Virtupets (probably on Sloth’s orders). Their doesn’t seem to be in explanation as to what’s causing this as it isn’t just big and powerful teams at the bottom. The smaller Moltara is still below Krawk Island, and Faerieland has never really been a small team. It would appear that whatever new measures TNT has implemented to help counteract the cheating groups are working, at least for now anywayAt the time of writing this Brightvale, Faerieland, and Kreludor are leading their brackets, and until we actually see some first day results to see if this is really the trend (perhaps results and bracket standings are even more separated this year that the previous two), and of course teams like Brightvale and Terror Mountain have been known to start out strong and falter as the cup wains on, so it can’t really be said definitively at this point in time that the problems have been solved, but I’m extremely hopeful about this cup going forward.

But what could this new bracket system be using to determine placings? I feel legitimacy has something to do with it as the two cheating teams are dead last while the “legitimately” boosted Virtupets is higher than them. One thing of note is that the brackets haven’t moved at all since 12:24 NST when they were tallied-up for the first time. So all the brackets have been at a stand still for nearly 12 hours now. One could say that this means the podium could already be decided, but I certainly feel it’s too early to say that

 

So what do you guys feel about the new bracket system so far, do you feel like it’s a step in the right direction, or do you think the fact the brackets don’t move means their still is a power creep factor? One point someone on the Neoboards made was perhaps this is TNT’s way of saying brackets won’t update except for when daily results are posted. I don’t really think this is true because the brackets say they keep updating like every 20 minutes or so (so they’re clearly doing something). Or maybe the decrease in max cap has actually had a stronger impact than people first thought. Leave your ideas and opinions below.

Day 1 (June 2nd): Begin Again

Wake up! I said WAKE UP! Don’t make me dump cold water on you and scream. Good, you’re up, cause this thing is starting now. Welcome to the Altador Cup IX everybody! *claps pots and pans together*

That being said, the brackets are not what we expected. Here they are:

Alabriss 1: Lost Desert, Moltara, Maraqua, Krawk Island, Kreludor and Roo Island
Minitheus 1: Darigan Citadel, Meridell, Virtupets, Shenkuu, Faerieland and Altador
Vaelous 1: Brightvale, Terror Mountain, Haunted Woods, Kiko Lake, Mystery Island, Tyrannia

As you can see, they aren’t based on the standings last year, but they look surprisingly balanced. There’s some great matches on the slate today so why don’t we get to some predictions!?

Lost Desert vs Moltara
Since there’s nothing to go off of except last year’s numbers and this year’s hype, predictions today will be a wee bit baseless. Moltara seems to be a perpetual worst team at the moment while the Desert is low but has room for a rising. This shouldn’t be a sweep since the Lost Desert are weak in the sides and Moltara can easily strike if they’re hot.
YYB – LD | SS – LD | MSN – LD | SOSD – MT | WIN – LD

Maraqua vs Krawk Island
Awesome enough to be a war, good enough to be a first match. These two are unaffected by ASGs and ACGs so it’s just a raw powerhouse struggle here. Maybe? Maraqua’s been quiet this year while Krawk Island has had the usual share of hype. I believe Krawk Island will be on another level but not enough to take everything here.
YYB – KI | SS – MQ | MSN – KI | SOSD – MQ | WIN – KI

Kreludor vs Roo Island
I can see this being very close but I’m still sure of my predictions that Kreludor will do well. The Roos were so amazing last year though so it’s hard to pinpoint where they will lose today.
YYB – KD | SS – KD | MSN – KD | SOSD – RI | WIN – KD

Darigan Citadel vs Meridell
Another war rematch today! We are #blessed. Based on who Darigan is being joined with it’s an easy prediction but I hope I’m massively wrong to show that changes have been made and it’s more balanced. I wonder if Meridell can break through in SOSD or something more?
YYB – DC | SS – DC | MSN – DC | SOSD – MD | WIN – DC

Virtupets vs Shenkuu
The first predicted sweep of the year. Of course news came out of Virtupets getting Stealth right after I post my official predictions, so I expect to see Virtupets do better than I expected. They last won when Stealth joined so here’s to another year of side-game scores that don’t suck.
YYB – VP | SS – VP | MSN – VP | SOSD – VP | WIN – VP

Faerieland vs Altador
As I right this, Faerieland is tied for first and they’re the top scorer with a ~3.0 lead over the second one. Is it too early to suspect anything? Well, regardless, I do think this match is in the Faerie’s favour. Wouldn’t have said that if they were against Altador last year. This match could show just how bogged down Altador may become.
YYB – FL | SS – AL | MSN – FL | SOSD – FL | WIN – FL

Brightvale vs Terror Mountain
Brightvale has a rep for storming a game against anyone and basically winning. With first day excitement it could be Yooyuball. Terror Mountain is pretty evenly matched though so the results should be mixed bag. I’ll be surprised if it’s one-sided even if the scores are close.
YYB – BV | SS – TM | MSN – TM | SOSD – TM | WIN – Draw

Haunted Woods vs Kiko Lake
Haunted Woods is stacked this year with an ACG and I’m still predicting them to be very hard to win against. The Kikos are aware of this though and they might be the perfect team to avoid a sweep.
YYB – HW | SS – KL | MSN – HW | SOSD – HW | WIN – HW

Mystery Island vs Tyrannia
The last match of the day pits the best against the worst according to last year’s stats, and this time it should be radically different. Even though I predicted Mystery Island to be the worst this year, I could definitely see them being a dark horse. So I’m actually calling this one an Islanders win and seeing where it goes from there.
YYB – MI | SS – MI | MSN – TY | SOSD – TY | WIN – MI